Friday, February 21, 2020

What is Russia trying to do?

What we are hearing about Russian interference in the 2020 election is a sham and a shame. I don't know whether to blame the intelligence reports or the news media. Here is what AP reports:

"Just weeks into this year’s election cycle, Russia already is actively interfering in the U.S. presidential campaign in hopes of reelecting President Donald Trump, and is also trying to help the candidacy of Sen. Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, intelligence officials have concluded.

The Russian efforts are aimed at undermining public confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections and stirring general chaos in American politics, intelligence experts say" (
https://apnews.com/1398cc440971a3f39d95346a875d3726, 21 Feb 2020).

I suspect that the second paragraph is accurate. I am confident that "the Russian efforts are aimed at undermining public confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections and stirring general chaos in American politics." The best way to undermine confidence and to stir chaos is to focus on non-traditional candidates with a core of fervent followers. Therefore putting out disinformation that is favorable to Trump or Sanders is probably the best way to undermine confidence and to stir chaos.

However, I challenge the statements in the first paragraph. No one knows who Russia hopes wins the nominations or elections. To claim otherwise is speculation. Moreover, the first paragraph contradicts itself. It  states that the goal is to help reelect Donald Trump and also to help Bernie Sanders. Unless having Bernie be the Democratic nominee helps Trump win the election, the two goals in the first paragraph are not the same.  

Holman Jenkins of the WSJ makes my point more emphatically. "We are idiots if we think the Russians are asking themselves what they can do to advance Trump’s cause. The Kremlin is asking how to keep American politics roiled and distrustful. ... The real upside of Russia’s meddling comes from keeping Americans unreasonably and unnecessarily poisoned against each other."

I see two possibilities for why the media keeps repeating something they cannot know. The first possibility is that the news media is not thinking. Instead, they are repeating a narrative about Trump and Russia without recognizing that the account is speculative and internally inconsistent. The second possibility is that the news media is repeating phrases from an intelligence briefing or a leak from a briefing and do not want to stray from the language of the source. The first possibility tells me that the news media is being lazy. The second possibility tells me that the intelligence agency or person describing the report is putting "spin" on the facts.

We need truth today. We need facts unvarnished with spin or narrative. We need reporters who say what they know and who refrain from speculating about things they can't know and from repeating mindlessly an what someone leaking a confidential report said was in the report.

Note: Reference to Holman Jenkins is a revision to the original post.